Impactful Trades Shake the Foundation
The two weeks preceding the NBA training camps aren't typically known for landscape-altering trades. But the league was rocked when, on September 28, the Portland Trail Blazers orchestrated a seismic deal, sending Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks. This transaction added one of the league's premier offensive talents to a team that boasted the best record in the previous season. The Blazers didn't stop there; they also rerouted Jrue Holiday to the Boston Celtics, a team that had the league's second-best record. These two moves sent shockwaves through the basketball world.
The GM Survey’s Verdict
These transformative deals had a profound impact on the 22nd annual NBA GM Survey. The Celtics emerged as strong contenders, receiving one-third of the picks from general managers to win the 2023-24 championship. They share this spot with the defending champion Denver Nuggets, with the Bucks not far behind. Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday, the centerpieces of these deals, received 60% of the votes for offseason acquisitions that would make the most significant impact.
The Reign of Nikola Jokic
Nikola Jokic, the reigning Finals MVP, rightfully steals the spotlight in the survey. He garnered the most votes for this season's Kia MVP, making him the player most GMs would want to build a franchise around. Jokic was also a consensus choice for the best center, best passer, and the player with the best basketball IQ. In the power forward position, Giannis Antetokounmpo stood as an overwhelming favorite. This marks the first time in over a decade that a player or players received more than 90% of the votes at any position.
The Phenomenal Victor Wembanyama
Victor Wembanyama emerged as the shining star among rookie prospects, being touted as the best in the last two decades. GMs voted overwhelmingly in his favor, giving him 90% of the votes when asked which rookie would be the best player in five years. Astonishingly, 23% of the league's decision-makers also expressed a desire to start a franchise with the 19-year-old San Antonio Spur, making him the second-most preferred choice, trailing only Jokic.
Insights from the GM Survey
The GM Survey paints a comprehensive picture of the NBA landscape, covering 50 questions about the league's best teams, players, coaches, and offseason moves. It's worth noting that general managers were barred from voting for their own teams or personnel. The percentages presented here are derived from the responses of a particular question, not the consensus of all 30 GMs.
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Predictions
Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals?
Boston Celtics – 33%
Denver Nuggets – 33%
Milwaukee Bucks – 23%
Phoenix Suns – 7%
LA Clippers – 3% (Last year: Milwaukee Bucks – 43%)
Eastern Conference Rankings:
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | %Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 53% | 43% | 34% | 20% | |
| Milwaukee | 43% | 53% | 33% | 18% | |
| Cleveland | 43% | 23% | 11% | 12% | |
| Philadelphia | 30% | 20% | 8% | 12% | |
| New York | 17% | 33% | 7% | 11% | |
| Miami | 3% | 3% | 10% | 20% | 6% |
| Atlanta | 3% | 0% | 3% |
Western Conference Rankings:
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | %Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver | 70% | 20% | 3% | 35% | 21% |
| Phoenix | 23% | 50% | 3% | 7% | 18% |
| L.A. Lakers | 3% | 20% | 27% | 23% | 13% |
| Golden State | 7% | 37% | 17% | 11% | 14% |
| LA Clippers | 3% | 23% | 10% | 7% | 12% |
| Memphis | 7% | 13% | 3% | 7% | |
| New Orleans | 3% | 3% | 1% | 2% | |
| Sacramento | 13% | 1% | 6% | ||
| Dallas | 10% | 1% | 4% | ||
| Oklahoma City | 3% | 0% | 1% |
Players
Who will win the 2023-24 Kia MVP?
Nikola Jokic, Denver – 43%
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee – 20%
Jayson Tatum, Boston – 13%
Luka Doncic, Dallas – 10% (Last year: Luka Doncic – 48%)
If you were starting a franchise today and could sign any player in the NBA, who would it be?
Nikola Jokic, Denver – 33%
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio – 23%
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee – 13%
Luka Doncic, Dallas – 10%
Anthony Edwards, Minnesota – 7% (Last year: Giannis Antetokounmpo – 55%)
Which player forces opposing coaches to make the most adjustments?
Stephen Curry, Golden State – 40%
Nikola Jokic, Denver – 33%
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee – 13%
Luka Doncic, Dallas – 10%
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia – 3% (Last year: Stephen Curry – 52%)
Which player is most likely to have a breakout season in 2023-24?
Anthony Edwards, Minnesota – 23%
Cade Cunningham, Detroit – 20%
Franz Wagner, Orlando – 13% T-4. Paolo Banchero, Orlando – 7% T-4. Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia – 7% (Last year: Evan Mobley – 21%)
Who is the best point guard in the NBA?
Stephen Curry, Golden State – 63%
Luka Doncic, Dallas – 27%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City – 7%
Damian Lillard, Milwaukee – 3% (Last year: Stephen Curry – 72%)
Who is the best shooting guard in the NBA?
Devin Booker, Phoenix – 63%
Stephen Curry, Golden State – 10% T-3. Luka Doncic, Dallas – 7% T-3. Anthony Edwards, Minnesota – 7% T-3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City – 7% (Last year: Devin Booker – 45%)
Who is the best small forward in the NBA?
Jayson Tatum, Boston – 47%
Kevin Durant, Phoenix – 20%
Luka Doncic, Dallas – 17%
LeBron James, L.A. Lakers – 13%
Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers – 3% (Last year: Kevin Durant – 45%)
Who is the best power forward in the NBA?
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee – 97%
Kevin Durant, Phoenix – 3% (Last year: Giannis Antetokounmpo – 86%)
Who is the best center in the NBA?
Nikola Jokic, Denver – 93% (Also receiving votes: Anthony Davis, L.A. Lakers; Joel Embiid, Philadelphia) (Last year: Nikola Jokic – 79%)
Highest Percentage of Total Votes on Position Questions
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee – 19.3%
- Nikola Jokic, Denver – 18.7%
- Stephen Curry, Golden State – 14.7%
- Devin Booker, Phoenix – 12.7% T-5. Luka Doncic, Dallas – 10.0% T-5. Jayson Tatum, Boston – 10.0%
Offseason Moves
Which team made the best overall moves this offseason?
T-1. Boston Celtics – 23% T-1. Milwaukee Bucks – 23%
Portland Trail Blazers – 17%
Los Angeles Lakers – 13% T-5. Dallas Mavericks – 7% T-5. Houston Rockets – 7% (Also receiving votes: Indiana Pacers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns) (Last year: Cleveland Cavaliers – 41%)
Which one player acquisition will make the biggest impact?
Damian Lillard, Milwaukee – 47%
Jrue Holiday, Boston – 13%
Bradley Beal, Phoenix – 10% T-4. Kristaps Porzingis, Boston – 7% T-4. Fred VanVleet, Houston – 7% T-4. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio – 7% (Also receiving votes: Dillon Brooks, Houston; Jusuf Nurkic, Phoenix; Marcus Smart, Memphis) (Last year: Donovan Mitchell – 59%)
What was the most underrated player acquisition?
Marcus Smart, Memphis – 17%
Grant Williams, Dallas – 14% T-3. Dillon Brooks, Houston – 7% T-3. Bruce Brown, Indiana – 7% T-3. Jusuf Nurkic, Phoenix – 7% T-3. Max Strus, Cleveland – 7% T-3. Fred VanVleet, Houston – 7% (Also receiving votes: Deandre Ayton, Portland; Miles Bridges, Charlotte; Jrue Holiday, Boston; Tyus Jones, Washington; Jordan Poole, Washington; Kristaps Porzingis, Boston; Dennis Schroder, Toronto; Obi Toppin, Indiana; Sasha Vezenkov, Sacramento; Gabe Vincent, L.A. Lakers) (Last year: Malcolm Brogdon – 28%)
Which team will be most improved in 2023-24?
Oklahoma City Thunder – 30%
Houston Rockets – 23% T-3. Dallas Mavericks – 10% T-3. Detroit Pistons – 10% T-3. Orlando Magic – 10% (Also receiving votes: Golden State Warriors, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Lakers, New Orleans Pelicans, Utah Jazz) (Last year: LA Clippers – 41%)
What was the most surprising move of the offseason?
Holiday/Lillard trade – 43%
Smart/Porzingis trade – 20%
Chris Paul to Golden State – 17% T-4. Bradley Beal to Phoenix – 7% T-4. Bruce Brown to Indiana – 7% (Also receiving votes: Fred VanVleet to Houston, Grant Williams to Dallas) (Last year: Rudy Gobert to Minnesota – 47%)
Rookies & International
Who will win the 2023-24 Rookie of the Year?
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio – 50%
Scoot Henderson, Portland – 27%
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City – 20%
Sasha Vezenkov, Sacramento – 3% (Last year: Paolo Banchero – 79%)
Which rookie will be the best player in five years?
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio – 90% (Also receiving votes: Scoot Henderson, Portland; Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City; Amen Thompson, Houston) (Last year: Paolo Banchero – 31%) (Five years ago: Deandre Ayton and Jaren Jackson Jr. – 27%)
Which rookie was the biggest steal at where he was selected in the Draft?
Cam Whitmore (20), Houston – 43% T-2. Keyonte George (16), Utah – 10% T-2. Scoot Henderson (3), Portland – 10% T-2. Jaime Jaquez Jr. (18), Miami – 10%
Brandin Podziemski (19), Golden State – 7% (Also receiving votes: Emoni Bates (49), Cleveland; Leonard Miller (33), Minnesota; Marcus Sasser (25), Detroit; Brice Sensabaugh (28), Utah; Ausar Thompson (5), Detroit; Jordan Walsh (38), Boston) (Last year: Jalen Duren and Tari Eason – 14%)
Who is the best international player in the NBA?
Nikola Jokic, Denver – 80%
Luka Doncic, Dallas – 10%
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee – 7%
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia – 3% (Last year: Giannis Antetokounmpo – 57%)
Who is the best international player NOT in the NBA?
Nikola Mirotic – 37%
Edy Tavares – 27%
Alex Sarr – 13%
Dzanan Musa – 10%
Willy Hernangomez – 7% (Also receiving votes: Juancho Hernangomez, Rokas Jokubaitis) (Last year: Victor Wembanyama – 45%)
Defense
Who is the best defensive player in the NBA?
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee – 40%
Jrue Holiday, Boston – 13% T-3. Draymond Green, Golden State – 10% T-3. Marcus Smart, Memphis – 10% T-4. Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis – 7% T-4. Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers – 7% (Also receiving votes: Alex Caruso, Chicago; Anthony Davis, L.A. Lakers; Luguentz Dort, Oklahoma City; Rudy Gobert, Minnesota) (Last year: Giannis Antetokounmpo – 48%)
Who is the best perimeter defender in the NBA?
Jrue Holiday, Boston – 50%
Mikal Bridges, Brooklyn – 13% T-3. Alex Caruso, Chicago – 10% T-3. Marcus Smart, Memphis – 10%
Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers – 7% (Also receiving votes: Jimmy Butler, Miami; Luguentz Dort, Oklahoma City; Jayson Tatum, Boston)
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